The profound changes that are affecting the world geopolitical scenario as a result of the military conflict in Ukraine do not only concern the European geopolitical context but may soon have serious repercussions in another region, which is notoriously “hot” from a geopolitical and geostrategic point of view, namely the Middle East. This is because a real revolution in geopolitical arrangements as they had taken shape from 1945 to the present day is also underway in this area. The recent agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations between the two Islamic countries raises very serious questions about Israel’s security in the region and the military role that Tel Aviv has exercised to the present day. The agreement upsets the geopolitical and geostrategic balance present in the macroregion and poses very serious threats to Israeli hegemonic ambitions over the entire Middle East. The tiny Jewish state is also rocked by internal protests and unclear and even undemocratic political drift. This seems to be aggravating the situation of the Zionist state, which now also faces possible shocks on the internal front in addition to the notoriously hot external front.The country is divided between extremist bangs ( who enjoy broad consensus at the political level) who would like to unleash an attack on Iran and reestablish Tel Aviv’s dominance over the region and those who favor a de-escalation of relations with geopolitical rivals in the area (Iran and Syria in primis). It is unclear which orientation will prevail in the Israeli exatblishment but ,considering the weight of the army and its associated political bangs within the nation, it is not excluded that a decision will be made for all-out war in the Middle East against Israel’s historical enemies. On the other hand, a large part of the Israeli population seems not to accept the recent geopolitical developments in the area and appears in favor of subverting the course of events by decisive forceful action.
EVOLUTION OF THE MIDDLE EASTERN GEOPOLITICAL FRAMEWORK AND THE ISOLATION OF ISRAEL.
Israel’s position in the Middle East region appears weaker today than ever before. With the exception of Jordan, Tel Aviv no longer has any real allies in the region. So much so that it has repeatedly had to resort to the territory of Azerbaijan to carry out attacks on Iranian territory.Such attacks (air or missile) reveal a creeping conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv that while not formalizing into a declared war is , however, in fact, a real and ongoing military confrontation between the two countries. Israel has for years been planning the bombing of the Persian country’s vital infrastructure aimed also at preventing Tehran from succeeding in acquiring the atomic bomb ( to which it seems very close). The fact is that Saudi Arabia’s move away from the U.S. sphere of influence and its rapprochement with Iran make such plans unrealistic. In fact, such an operation would have to get Riyadh’s approval since Saudi airspace is needed for its success but this is unlikely to be granted for this purpose now that the Saudis and Iranians are “rapprochement.” All this complicates the geostrategic (as well as geopolitical) picture in the region and profoundly downgrades the possibility that the Zionist country can actually attack Iran and weaken its economic and military capabilities.All the more so now that the wall-to-wall between Russia and the NATO countries has deployed Moscow even more firmly on the side of its Persian ally, including with supplies of modern weapons and fourth-generation aircraft capable of effectively countering Israeli F 15 and F 16 ( as well as the more modern F 35) and thus making any attack on Iranian soil extremely difficult. It will have to be seen whether the Israeli political leadership will be able to accept the profound changes in the Middle East geopolitical and geostrategic scenario or whether it will instead decide to oppose them manu militari. What is certain is that Tel Aviv no longer seems to have the numbers to start a war in West Asia since all this would require an active and massive intervention by the U.S. fleet ( and perhaps the British fleet) that could only partially make up for the “territorial advantage” that Tehran can currently claim over Israel. Indeed, the Shiite axis formed in the region ( which includes Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon alongside Iran) could directly threaten Israeli territory and re-propose a scenario very similar to that of 2006 ( the year of the Israeli-Lebanese war ) that could prove unfavorable to the Zionist state.So it would be better to have a negotiation that , on the basis of realpolitik and the new power relations that have come into being in the region, would agree to an “armistice” that would end the decades-long conflict between the Jewish and Persian states. There is only the question of whether the Israeli establishment will accept a new role in the region or instead decide to lash out at the profound geopolitical changes in the making. We trust in the first hypothesis also because we believe, numbers in hand, that Tel Aviv has , at the moment, no chance to impose itself militarily in the Middle East region.
CONCLUSIONS.
The geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East inexorably reflect the profound changes taking place on the global geopolitical stage. The agreement recently reached between Riyadh and Tehran to “start talking to each other again” is a glaring expression of these changes and how they are impacting the world order as we have known it to date. It represents a now blatant rejection of the divide-and-conquer strategy that has allowed the Anglo-Saxon empire to subjugate the entire Middle East region.And it also represents the new role that Russia and China have been playing in the region for several years now ( the arrangement has been favored and supported by Moscow and Beijing) and how that role has undermined the power system established in the past by Washington and Tel Aviv in the region. By virtue of these developments Israel seems to find itself increasingly alone and without real allies in the Middle East (with the possible exception of Jordan). And increasingly unable to restore the pre-existing geopolitical order by force of arms. We are facing a scenario unthinkable even a decade ago. The world is taking great strides toward structural reforms of the geopolitical and geoeconomic power system as they have taken shape since the end of World War II. All this is followed by a weakening of the Western geostrategic perspective which will have to , inexorably, “scale back its horizons” in proportion to the loss of economic and geopolitical power it is experiencing.