In late September and October 2025, Madagascar entered one of its most turbulent political phases in recent history. Massive protests, power blackouts, water shortages, and a military intervention led to the impeachment of President Andry Rajoelina, the dissolution of Parliament, and the rise of a transitional military government.
What began as a civic protest against poor public services quickly evolved into a deep political and institutional crisis with global implications—particularly for France and the European Union, whose historical and economic presence in Madagascar has long symbolized Western influence in Africa.
This article explores:
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The roots of the 2025 political crisis in Madagascar;
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The role of the military and youth-led movements;
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The economic and institutional consequences;
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The impact on European and French influence;
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Possible future scenarios for the country and the region.
1. The Roots of the Madagascar Crisis
1.1 Immediate Triggers: Power Cuts, Water Shortages, and Rising Costs
The first protests erupted in Antananarivo on September 25, 2025, fueled by daily power outages, water scarcity, and an ever-increasing cost of living. Public frustration quickly escalated into large demonstrations across the island.
Citizens—especially the younger generation—accused the government of corruption, mismanagement, and nepotism, as the country struggled to deliver essential services. According to Al Jazeera and Reuters, discontent spread from the capital to provincial cities within days, creating the largest wave of civil unrest since 2009.
1.2 The Rise of Gen Z and the Military’s Defection
A defining feature of the 2025 protests was the active participation of Madagascar’s Gen Z—a digitally connected generation that organized protests through social media platforms.
Their slogan, “Tsy misy rano, tsy misy jiro, tsy misy hoavy” (“No water, no electricity, no future”), became the rallying cry of a movement calling for government accountability and generational change.
But the real turning point came when CAPSAT, the Centre d’Administration du Personnel et des Services Techniques—an elite military unit—refused to follow presidential orders and openly sided with protesters. This military defection marked the beginning of Rajoelina’s downfall.
1.3 Structural Weaknesses: Governance, Economy, and Post-Colonial Tensions
Beyond the immediate causes, Madagascar’s political fragility stems from chronic structural weaknesses: fragile governance, underfunded infrastructure, dependency on imports, and a fragile fiscal system often supported by IMF programs.
Compounding this is the island’s colonial legacy with France, which still shapes its political culture, education, and foreign relations. While France remains Madagascar’s largest bilateral donor and investor, this close relationship has often been interpreted as a form of soft neocolonialism, deepening internal divisions.
2. The Unfolding of the Crisis
2.1 Protests Escalate: From Street Anger to Political Meltdown
The protests that started as economic grievances rapidly evolved into mass demonstrations demanding systemic change, anti-corruption measures, and the resignation of President Rajoelina.
Despite minor cabinet reshuffles and public promises of reform, the government failed to regain legitimacy. By early October, the protests had turned into a nationwide movement demanding a complete overhaul of political institutions.
2.2 The Military Coup and Rajoelina’s Impeachment
On October 12, 2025, the situation escalated dramatically. CAPSAT declared that it had “assumed responsibility for the security of the nation.” Hours later, the Parliament impeached President Rajoelina, who allegedly fled the country on a French military aircraft toward Réunion.
The National Assembly and Senate were dissolved, and a military council announced a transitional period to “restore stability.” The development was widely described by international media (Reuters, The Guardian, AP News) as a de facto military coup.
2.3 International Reactions
The IMF, which had been supporting Madagascar with a reform package focusing on subsidy reduction and public sector reform, expressed “deep concern” and temporarily suspended disbursements.
The European Union, United States, and African Union called for “dialogue and respect for the constitutional order.” France, meanwhile, found itself in a delicate position—urging calm but facing accusations of political interference from both Malagasy activists and African commentators.
3. Domestic Consequences
3.1 Economic Impact
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Foreign Investment Uncertainty: The crisis has shaken investor confidence, particularly in the mining and energy sectors, which represent key growth drivers.
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Public Services Breakdown: Persistent blackouts and fuel shortages are worsening as the political paralysis drags on.
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IMF Program at Risk: The economic reforms agreed with the IMF are now effectively frozen, threatening budgetary stability and risking inflationary shocks.
According to Ecofin Agency, Madagascar’s projected 2025 growth rate has already been revised downward from 4.2% to below 2% due to the political turmoil.
3.2 Institutional Collapse
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Legitimacy Crisis: With the dissolution of elected bodies and the exile of the president, the constitutional order has been severely undermined.
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Generational Polarization: The Gen Z movement, empowered by digital tools, views the old political elite as obsolete and corrupt.
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Risk of Militarization: Although the military council has promised a “return to democracy,” there are growing concerns that the junta may consolidate power rather than hand it over.
4. European and French Influence in the Balance
4.1 France’s Historical Role
France colonized Madagascar from 1896 to 1960. Decades after independence, French influence remains significant—through language, education, cultural programs, and investment. French companies dominate sectors such as mining, energy, and telecommunications, while Paris remains the island’s top foreign aid partner.
4.2 The Decline of French Soft Power
However, the 2025 crisis has revealed a declining effectiveness of French soft power in Africa. In Madagascar, popular resentment toward France has grown—particularly among youth groups who view French diplomacy as elitist and self-serving.
Rumors that French forces assisted Rajoelina’s escape have intensified anti-French sentiment, even though the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs categorically denied any military involvement.
This mirrors trends in the Sahel region, where France’s traditional influence has been eroded by military coups and the growing presence of Russia and China.
4.3 The European Union’s Dilemma
The European Union now faces a difficult balancing act. On one hand, it seeks to promote democratic stability and human rights; on the other, it has economic and strategic interests—notably in critical raw materials, environmental cooperation, and regional maritime security in the Indian Ocean.
The EU has called for an “inclusive dialogue” and pledged to continue humanitarian aid, but without recognizing the military authorities as legitimate until elections are held.
4.4 Economic Risks for Europe and France
The instability in Madagascar could have serious repercussions for European investors:
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French and European mining companies may face production halts or nationalization risks.
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Export and import flows between Madagascar and the EU could be disrupted.
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Development programs under the EU–Africa partnership may be suspended or restructured.
If France and Europe are seen as overly cautious or self-interested, they risk losing strategic influence in the Indian Ocean to new competitors.
5. Future Scenarios for Madagascar and Europe
5.1 Scenario One: Return to Civilian Rule
If the transitional authorities manage to organize credible elections and restore institutional legitimacy, Madagascar could reestablish international support and unlock suspended IMF funds.
France and the EU would likely reengage through targeted governance and infrastructure programs, under stricter transparency and anti-corruption conditions.
5.2 Scenario Two: Prolonged Military Rule
A less optimistic scenario sees the military junta entrenching itself, prolonging the transition and cracking down on dissent. This could trigger international sanctions, aid suspension, and economic isolation, echoing recent crises in Mali or Niger.
5.3 Scenario Three: Strategic Realignment with Non-Western Powers
As France and Europe hesitate, China, Russia, and Gulf states may seek to expand influence through infrastructure investments, mining contracts, and military cooperation. This shift would further dilute Western influence in Madagascar and across the Indian Ocean corridor.
5.4 The Economic Challenge Ahead
The IMF-backed reforms—cutting subsidies, modernizing the energy sector, and restructuring public finances—remain essential for long-term recovery. But without political stability, these measures risk failure, leading to hyperinflation, capital flight, and growing poverty.
6. Conclusion
The 2025 political crisis in Madagascar exposes deep structural vulnerabilities within the island’s governance model—but it also signals a broader geopolitical realignment in Africa.
For France and the European Union, the crisis is a warning: maintaining influence in Africa can no longer rely solely on historical ties or economic leverage. It requires mutual respect, genuine partnership, and responsiveness to local demands for dignity and sovereignty.
Madagascar’s path forward will depend on whether its leadership—civilian or military—can restore essential services, rebuild institutions, and regain public trust. For Europe, the challenge lies in adapting to a changing African landscape, where old colonial reflexes no longer work and new global powers are reshaping the balance of influence.