The geopolitical and economic importance of India in the geopolitical and geostrategic confrontation between East and West

A still little-known aspect of global geopolitical dynamics is the importance that India (and the Indian region, also including Pakistan and Bangladesh) is assuming in the balance of power that is being redefined on the global geopolitical chessboard. We have already had the opportunity to clarify why New Delhi will have a leading role in the world geopolitics and geoeconomics of the years to come ( but it is important to understand because economic development and the demographic and geographical reality of India have become priorities in the geopolitical and geoeconomic vision of both the East and the West. To the point of having triggered a real challenge to grab what will be, without a shadow of a doubt, the area with the greatest economic growth on the planet as well as the largest market in the world in absolute terms. Both the Eurasian bloc (Russia and China) and the Western one are trying to establish trade agreements and diplomatic relations with New Delhi in order to be able to secure a huge market for their raw materials and the finished products of their respective processing industries. This dynamic is favored by the deterioration of commercial relations between East and West which threatens to sever, more or less definitively, the commercial exchange between the parties in question. And, consequently, the economic well-being that this has undeniably produced in the last thirty years of world history. India therefore presents itself not only as a huge economic opportunity for both parties but also as a formidable tool for the latter to free themselves from the economic dependence that one had on the other. But let’s try to understand how this great game between East and West is being played and how all this could impact future global geopolitical structures.
The geopolitical events that developed following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have placed the West on a total collision course with Putin’s Russia and, given Beijing’s decisive support for Moscow, also with Xi’s China. The military conflict taking place in Ukraine has not only produced a de facto war between the West and Russia but also foreshadows the breakdown of commercial relations between the USA (and Europe) and China. Which would have very problematic economic repercussions throughout the West also considering the economic stagnation that is already underway both in the USA and in Europe. This is because the inflation produced by the reckless printing of money by central banks as well as the increase in the cost of agricultural and mining raw materials has generated a drastic drop in the purchasing power of wages and therefore, consequently, has led to a rapid and generalized decline in domestic consumption (with relative fall in industrial production).The disproportionate increase in inflation was followed by a restrictive monetary policy with a sharp increase in the cost of money (and therefore interest on loans) which raises serious doubts about the real capacity for economic growth throughout the West. To deal with this economic situation, Western governments are increasingly resorting to debt. A situation that does not lead far even considering the exponential increase in interest on the same which will increasingly put the public finances of the various Western countries in difficulty with the consequent tightening of the tax pressure on activities and properties which will not be able to do anything else than further impoverish the middle class (exacerbating the already evident crisis of consumption and therefore of productivity). If the closure of the Russian market were to be followed by that of the Chinese market, it would not be easy for European goods to find other outlet markets, also considering the direction that diplomatic relations are taking with African and Latin American countries. It is therefore clear how important it is for the West to guarantee itself an immense outlet market like that of the Indian subcontinent. To avoid a crisis of overproduction of its industrial apparatus which would lead to dramatic social repercussions and a progressive loss of power on the global geopolitical chessboard. This is why Western diplomacy is actively working to cement relations between New Delhi, Washington and Brussels. Also fomenting regional rivalries between the Indian and Chinese giants in the Indo-Pacific area. All this to relaunch the geopolitics of the “Pivot to Asia” which has represented one of the obsessions of the US establishment from the Obama presidency onwards. Which, if successful, would allow the Anglo-Saxon empire to expand its influence in a geographical area of vital importance for its greatest geopolitical rival (China) since the Indian Ocean trade route is of vital importance for the celestial empire. Which would see the strengthening of the US presence in the Indian Ocean as an existential threat to its trade and economy. This shows how important the Indian region is for the West and how much it is at the center of the geopolitical and geoeconomic vision of Washington, London and Brussels. An important card to play in the great game it is playing to defend its hegemony over the world.
The developments in diplomatic relations between the West and the East make the Indian region, with its exceptional demographic importance, a geopolitical chessboard of vital importance for Moscow and Beijing. The economic and military interaction with New Delhi is in fact of vital importance in the geopolitical vision of the two former red giants. In fact, China plans to pour a large part of its enormous industrial production onto the Indian market in the event of a breakdown in trade relations with Western countries. This would represent a significant driving force for the Dragon’s economy which could thus avoid not only the closure of the important Western markets to its products but also the progressive saturation of its own internal market. For Moscow, the economic and demographic development of the Indian region represents an excellent guarantee for its exports of raw, agricultural and mineral materials, in this geopolitical context (also allowing it not to depend almost exclusively on Beijing for the sale of its natural resources). India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons and its economic expansion will also give impetus to the purchase of weapons and military equipment which could be supplied, for the most part, by Moscow. It is therefore clear that both Russia and China have every need to cement their relations with New Delhi also in response to the economic threats coming from the West. Both then have an extreme need to prevent a diplomatic rapprochement between India and the USA which could jeopardize the policy of expulsion (energetically perpetrated over the last twenty years) of the latter from the Asian continent. The US presence in the Indian Ocean (and around the Strait of Malacca, vital for the naval trade of the celestial empire) is not in the interests of Moscow and Beijing. Who are therefore working, also within the BRICS club, to promote economic and military synergies that preclude or limit to the maximum the diplomatic and geopolitical maneuvers of the West (and therefore its expansion) in the Indian subcontinent.
From what has been written so far, it clearly emerges that India (and the Indian region as a whole) will be a fundamental player in the ongoing battle for world power between East and West. Its role will be directly proportional to the size of its economy and its market. It actually seems indispensable especially for the West. The economic and geopolitical decline of which now appears unstoppable. The fact is that, for various reasons, the countries of the Indian subcontinent could be induced to move closer to Moscow and Beijing than to Washington, London and Brussels. For strictly geopolitical but also economic reasons. In fact, the commercial exchange between Beijing on the one hand and New Delhi, Islamabad and Dakka on the other appears to be too great and the opportunity for New Delhi to be able to purchase Russian raw materials cheaply (an excellent driving force for its own economic development) and cutting-edge military technology that the West is not willing to provide. Furthermore, as we have already had the opportunity to underline, the finished products of Western industry will not be very competitive on the markets of the Indian region due to the sharp increase in prices for European industry following the sanctions imposed on Russia. Added to this is the cost of labor which is much more expensive in the West than in the East (and the cost of transporting goods is higher than in Chinese ones given the greater distance of Western countries). In any case, the game for what will be the largest outlet market in the world has already begun. And, given the stakes, it is likely that it will be played “all out”.

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