UKRAINE ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE
The events taking place in Eastern Europe make it necessary to reflect on the geopolitical dynamics in this specific part of the world. What is really happening in Ukraine and what were the causes that led to the current conflict between the latter (with the backing and support of NATO) and Russia. We will try to explain it analytically and in detail.
UKRAINE ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE: UKRAINE IN THE USSR
First of all, it should be noted that for historical and cultural reasons, Ukraine has always been a Russian country (in truth, a region that has practically never been able to enjoy true autonomy from Moscow). Only after the collapse of the USSR was it able to enjoy the status of a nation but always under the watchful eye of its powerful neighbor. On the other hand, it is undeniable that Ukraine was the most economically rich and dynamic region of the USSR (and of the tsarist empire before it). It is known not only for having been “the Soviet granary” as a large producer of wheat and cereals in general but also the region with the highest industrial concentration among the Soviet republics. Industrial activity is mainly concentrated in its eastern part, near the rich coal and metal basins of Donbass, where the most impressive heavy industry in the whole of Europe has developed. It is no coincidence, therefore, that it is in this area that the most ferocious conflict in the old continent since the Second World War is taking place today. The geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of Ukraine is much greater than it may seem at first glance since it is very rich in agricultural and mineral resources which both Europe (and the USA) and Russia want to take possession of . Resources which, moreover, are essential to ensure control over vast areas of the world. Let’s try to understand why.
ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF UKRAINE: UKRAINE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Ukraine has exceptionally fertile soil. So fertile that it allows you to grow a large quantity of products with almost no use of fertilizers. A large part of the production is destined for export as the per capita production is very high (as regards wheat, for example, it is the first in the world). In Ukraine, enormous quantities of wheat are produced and exported every year (sixth exporter in the world), barley (fourth producer in the world), corn (sixth producer in the world), potatoes (fourth producer in the world), sunflower and derivatives (first producer in the world), carrots (fifth producer in the world) and various vegetables. Many countries depend on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, including several African countries (Egypt first and foremost being the largest importer of wheat in the world but also Ethiopia and the countries of the Horn of Africa, which have always been major importers of cereals) and Asians (especially overpopulated Indonesia but also Bangladesh, Turkey, the Philippines and Yemen are large buyers of Ukrainian foodstuffs). It is clear, therefore, that controlling Ukraine means controlling the export of fundamental food raw materials for a large number of African and Asian countries (whose needs, among other things, grow every year given their demographic increase ) and, consequently, have a strong “bargaining power” towards them. For Russia (which, let’s remember, is already the world’s leading wheat exporter) control of Ukraine would mean significantly increasing its influence in Africa and on developing countries in Asia (primarily Indonesia) and have a 30% share of world wheat exports. For Europe, similarly, an integrated Ukraine into the European Union would mean significantly increasing its food exports to third world countries, increasing its influence on them and countering Russian expansion in this part of the world where Over the last ten years, Moscow has begun an unprecedented economic and commercial expansion.
ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF UKRAINE: MINING PRODUCTION OF UKRAINE
But Ukrainian soil is not only exceptionally fertile. It is also very rich in raw materials. We are not just talking about the vast coal and iron deposits of the Donbass which have allowed the development in this area (since the last century) of the most impressive heavy industry in Europe (together with the German one in the Ruhr basin). But, above all, of the many raw materials whose presence on Ukrainian soil has recently been ascertained. Together with the already present oil and gas deposits in the Sea of Azov and those off the coast of Crimea, enormous deposits of shale gas have been discovered in both the western and eastern parts of the country. This resource is tempting for Europe as the it would definitively free it from dependence on Russian gas and make it almost completely autonomous from an energy point of view. It should be added that Ukraine does not have the environmental constraints that led most European countries to ban this extraction method and therefore would lend itself very well to being exploited in this sense. Furthermore, Ukraine has large deposits of uranium (ninth producer in the world) and manganese (eighth producer in the world and second in world reserves). But it is in the area of the so-called Ukrainian shield (i.e. a territory of approximately 250,000 square kilometers that extends in the central-eastern part of the country between the Dnester and Bug rivers) that enormous mineral basins are hidden. In this territory the abundant presence of rare earths or those precious minerals (such as scandrium, yttrium, lanthanum, promethium etc.) which are essential for the high-tech transformation industry has been ascertained. Considering that, to date, China holds around 70% of the production of rare earths, it is easy to understand how Europe is interested in controlling these resources for its powerful industrial production. Which would allow it to no longer depend on foreign countries, and in particular on China and Russia, for the supply of these resources. Countries which, on the contrary, aim to control these raw materials in order to make the West (and its industry) dependent on them.
ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF UKRAINE: CONCLUSIONS
From all this we can deduce the importance of the ongoing game between East and West to determine the future geopolitical and geoeconomic balances of the world. In fact the game is more geoeconomic than geopolitical in the strict sense. This is not to say that a Ukraine in NATO, for example, does not represent a military threat to Moscow (with the possibility for NATO missiles to reach the Russian capital in less than 5 minutes from the Ukrainian bases). But we believe that Western interest in Ukraine is more of an economic nature than a geopolitical and geostrategic one. Control of Ukraine’s agricultural and mineral resources are as crucial to the West as they are to Russia. Whoever controls them will, by extension, control a large part of the world.