Over the past few years, diplomatic and commercial tensions between the United States and India have intensified dramatically. Washington’s decision to impose steep tariffs on Indian exports—partly due to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil—has triggered strong reactions from New Delhi.
At the same time, India has reaffirmed its strategic autonomy, resisting Western pressure and opening new economic and diplomatic channels with Russia and China.
This gradual shift has the potential to reshape global geopolitics. If India deepens its ties with Moscow and Beijing, a new power axis could emerge—one that directly challenges US hegemony in trade, defense, and global governance.
In this article we will explore:
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The roots of the US–India diplomatic and trade conflict
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How India is strengthening partnerships with Russia and China
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The main drivers behind India’s foreign policy evolution
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Possible scenarios, risks, and opportunities
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The consequences for US global influence
1. The Roots of the US–India Diplomatic and Trade Tensions
1.1 Trade Disputes and Tariff Escalation
In 2025, the US administration imposed a new wave of punitive tariffs on Indian goods, citing India’s energy trade with Russia.
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The additional 25% tariff effectively raised the total duties on certain Indian exports to nearly 50%, hitting labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, footwear, jewelry, and processed food.
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These measures severely disrupted ongoing negotiations toward a bilateral trade agreement, already hindered by disputes over market access, agricultural products, and non-tariff barriers.
As a result, talks between Washington and New Delhi stalled, creating frustration among businesses on both sides and pushing India to diversify its export markets.
1.2 India’s Oil Imports from Russia
Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, India has become one of the world’s largest buyers of discounted Russian crude.
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While Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow, India seized the opportunity to purchase oil at reduced prices to meet its booming energy demand.
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The US and EU criticized these purchases, arguing they indirectly financed Russia’s war efforts.
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India, however, defended its decision as a purely economic necessity, emphasizing that Western nations themselves continue limited trade with Russia in other sectors such as fertilizers and minerals.
1.3 Sovereignty and Strategic Autonomy
India’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly stated that New Delhi will not bow to external pressure.
He argues that energy security and national interest must prevail over Western expectations.
India also accuses Washington and Brussels of double standards, noting that their own companies maintain indirect trade with Russia through intermediaries.
1.4 Tensions on Security and Regional Policy
Beyond trade, friction extends to the security domain.
While India remains a key member of the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia), it continues to pursue independent diplomacy with countries like Iran, Russia, and China.
This multi-vector policy often clashes with Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which seeks to contain Beijing’s rise.
2. India’s Growing Alignment with Moscow and Beijing
Rather than a full alliance, India’s rapprochement with Russia and China reflects a pragmatic effort to balance its strategic options. Yet the deepening of these relationships is unmistakable and increasingly visible in trade, defense, and multilateral diplomacy.
2.1 India–Russia: Energy, Trade, and Defense
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India’s imports of Russian oil reached record levels in 2025, accounting for over one-third of its total crude intake.
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Bilateral trade volumes surpassed USD 68 billion, with India seeking to expand exports of pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and manufactured goods to offset its trade deficit.
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Defense cooperation remains robust: Russia continues to supply advanced weapons systems, while joint exercises and technology transfers maintain long-standing military ties.
Despite Western criticism, New Delhi views Moscow as a reliable energy and defense partner in a volatile global market.
2.2 India–China: Pragmatic Normalization
Although India and China remain rivals along their Himalayan border, recent months have shown signs of measured normalization.
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High-level dialogues and defense meetings have resumed.
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In October 2025, the two nations announced the resumption of direct flights after five years—a symbolic step toward commercial and diplomatic thawing.
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Beijing has expressed willingness to strengthen “constructive economic cooperation” with New Delhi, particularly in investment and trade connectivity.
This pragmatic approach allows India to maintain stability on its northern front while focusing on economic growth.
2.3 The Emerging Russia–India–China Triangle
Increasingly, the three powers are finding shared interests:
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Reforming global governance institutions
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Promoting de-dollarization in trade settlements
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Expanding cooperation in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
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Coordinating positions on energy, infrastructure, and digital connectivity
The symbolic “triple handshake” between Putin, Xi Jinping, and Modi at a recent SCO summit captured global attention as a potential harbinger of a new geopolitical alignment.
3. Key Drivers Behind India’s Foreign Policy Shift
3.1 Energy Security and Economic Pragmatism
India’s economic expansion relies heavily on affordable energy. With global oil markets destabilized by Western sanctions, Russian crude offers both price advantages and supply stability.
New Delhi’s decision to continue buying from Moscow is not ideological—it’s strategic pragmatism aimed at curbing inflation and securing growth.
3.2 The Doctrine of Strategic Autonomy
Since its independence, India has adhered to a non-aligned foreign policy, refusing to be tied to any bloc. In today’s multipolar context, this doctrine has evolved into “multi-alignment”: engaging with all major powers while preserving sovereignty.
This philosophy underpins India’s simultaneous participation in both Western and Eurasian frameworks (Quad, BRICS, SCO, G20, etc.).
3.3 Domestic Political Support
Domestically, India’s leadership enjoys broad support for resisting foreign interference.
Public opinion and policymakers alike view US tariffs and sanctions as unfair coercion.
Standing firm against Washington strengthens Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image as a defender of national sovereignty.
3.4 Economic Opportunities with Russia and China
Strengthening relations with Moscow and Beijing opens new prospects for India:
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Discounted access to energy resources
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Infrastructure investment from Chinese firms
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New export markets to offset tariff losses in the US
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Integration into non-Western financial systems that bypass US-controlled channels
Such diversification enhances India’s resilience in a fragmented global economy.
4. Scenarios: Risks, Limits, and Opportunities
4.1 A Potential New Axis
If current trends continue, India could gradually form part of an Eurasian bloc centered around Russia and China.
This would include:
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Deeper defense cooperation and intelligence sharing
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Settlement of trade in local currencies (rupee, ruble, yuan)
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Expanded collaboration on energy pipelines and maritime routes across the Indian Ocean
Such moves would dramatically weaken the US’s geopolitical leverage in Asia.
4.2 Structural Constraints and Limitations
However, a full-fledged alliance remains unlikely due to deep-rooted contradictions:
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Border disputes and strategic mistrust still divide India and China.
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India values its partnerships with Western democracies for technology, defense diversification, and market access.
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Economic realities—such as inflation, debt, and domestic priorities—limit India’s ability to sustain prolonged geopolitical confrontations.
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Any excessive tilt toward Russia or China risks alienating investors and Western allies essential for India’s modernization.
Hence, New Delhi’s diplomacy will likely remain a delicate balancing act rather than an ideological pivot.
4.3 Opportunities for India
Despite these risks, India’s strategic independence offers major benefits:
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Enhanced credibility among Global South nations that seek multipolar alternatives to US dominance.
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Bargaining power between competing blocs—extracting better deals in trade, technology, and defense.
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Attraction of new investments from companies aiming to diversify supply chains outside China or the US sphere of influence.
This “third-way” positioning could elevate India’s status as a global power broker.
5. Implications for US Global Hegemony
5.1 Diminishing Economic Leverage
The US dollar’s dominance has long given Washington immense influence over global trade and finance.
If India, along with Russia and China, expands non-dollar settlements, America’s ability to enforce economic pressure will weaken.
Diversified energy imports and alternative markets reduce India’s dependence on Western systems, undermining US sanction power.
5.2 A Shift in the Indo-Pacific Balance
A stronger India–Russia–China relationship would complicate US strategic planning in the Indo-Pacific.
It could erode the cohesion of US-led initiatives such as the Quad, as New Delhi prioritizes independent diplomacy over bloc politics.
This would force Washington to rethink its containment strategy toward Beijing and its engagement with the Global South.
5.3 Institutional and Ideological Impact
Through platforms like BRICS, the SCO, and the G20, India can advocate reforms that challenge the Western-centric world order—pushing for fairer representation, equitable finance, and alternative development models.
Such moves would weaken the ideological foundation of US liberal hegemony, which has dominated international institutions since World War II.
5.4 Possible US Countermeasures
In response, Washington may:
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Impose secondary sanctions or expand trade restrictions
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Increase diplomatic engagement and economic incentives to lure India back
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Intensify defense cooperation through the Quad and bilateral deals
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Leverage technology and investment partnerships to maintain influence
However, these strategies carry the risk of backfiring if perceived as pressure tactics, further driving India toward its Eurasian partners.
6. Conclusion: A New Multipolar Reality
The current US–India tensions are not merely a passing episode—they mark a structural transition in global power dynamics.
India’s rise as an independent pole reflects a broader multipolar transformation of the international system.
By deepening its relationships with Russia and China, India is asserting that it will not be dictated to by any single power.
For Washington, this evolution poses a serious challenge: coercive measures like tariffs and sanctions are losing effectiveness in an increasingly interconnected world.
If the United States fails to adapt—by offering genuine partnership instead of pressure—it risks losing not only India’s trust but also its broader influence across Asia and the Global South.