INDIAN’S RISE ON THE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC STAGE: WHY INDIA WILL BE SO STRONG
The rise of India (and the Indian region, including Pakistan and Bangladesh) appears to be the most relevant geopolitical event of the 21st century. In fact, there is no doubt that New Delhi is increasing its geopolitical relevance in the framework of international relations as they are taking shape today. But why is the importance of the Indian subcontinent increasing more and more in today’s world? And what geopolitical importance could it have in the near future? This cannot be explained only by its nominal GDP of approximately 3,800,000,000,000 dollars (approximately 12,000,000,000,000 if we consider the PPP GDP). There’s much more to it than that. We try to explain it in a simple and detailed way.
INDIAN’S RISE ON THE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC STAGE: ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDIA.
In the world of the 21st century, the geopolitical and geoeconomic reality of India undoubtedly represents the most dynamic element of all. We say this not only for the notable economic growth taking place in the country (GDP increase of between 6 and 8% per year which economic forecasts also confirm for the next few years) but also for the enormous demographic importance of the Asian country. India is preparing to overtake China in the ranking of the most populous countries in the world and its population, if added to that of the two other geopolitical realities of the Indian region (i.e. Pakistan and Bangladesh, once annexed to India but who separated from it after New Delhi’s independence from the British Empire achieved in 1948) amounts to the “monstrous” figure of approximately one billion eight hundred million people. We are talking about a quarter of the world’s population. Twenty-five percent of the world population is concentrated in a territory of just over 4,000,000 square kilometers (which is exceptional if you consider that China has a population of just over one billion four hundred thousand inhabitants on a territory covering over 9,000. 000 km2 and Russia has a population of 145,000,000 on a territory of over 17,000,000 km2). Now from what has been said it is easy to deduce that the Indian subcontinent will soon become the most important economic area in the world. With an immense market that will dwarf what have until now been the main markets in the world (i.e. the European and American ones, which “driven” the global economic growth of the 20th century). Obviously, such developments will make this macroregion of vital importance to many economies around the world. For the Russian one, for example, which could become the largest exporter of raw materials to India (together with the countries of the nearby Middle East, Iran first and foremost, which will be able to export their hydrocarbons to the neighboring Indian subcontinent). But also for China which looks at New Delhi’s economic growth as a great economic-commercial opportunity for its industrial complex (in view of increasingly problematic economic relations with the West). The EU and the United States of America have also long sought to establish trade relations with the rising Indian power. This is in relation to the “divide and conquer” strategywhich would like to foment geopolitical rivalries in the South Asian area in order to prevent the formation of economic and political synergies that would make the West irrelevant in this part of the world (especially Washington and London have tried to foment rivalry between China and India in this region). These actions have achieved little success as they do not serve the interests of the main geopolitical players in South Asia. Macroregion in which, in any case, we do not believe that the West can be very competitive (except in the field of high-tech industry where Eastern competitors are still relatively few). This is on the one hand due to the much higher cost of labor in Europe and the United States of America than in China and Asia in general, on the other due to the cost of transporting goods which penalizes Western countries compared to their Asian rivals.
INDIAN’S RISE ON THE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC STAGE: SOCIAL EVOLUTION AND DEMOGRAPHIC RELEVANCE OF INDIA (LARGEEST MARKET IN THE WORLD).
India is currently experiencing an economic boom similar to that experienced by Italy in the 1960s and by China in the years between the 20th and 21st centuries. This economic development will lead, as has already happened in the cases cited above, to a mass movement of the rural population towards the cities and the formation of a middle class capable of putting further fuel on the fire of the country’s whirlwind economic growth. All this will lead to an enormous development of the internal market given the progressive increase in the spending capacity of a large part of the population. The economic and social reforms implemented in the country in the last twenty years have favored this process and undermined all those factors that prevented the modernization of Indian society. The initiatives of the Indian governments regarding the overcoming of the social caste system have been important (which, although abolished already in 1948, continued to be followed, mainly in the rural areas of the country, until the end of the last century) which it has allowed greater flexibility and articulation of Indian society and has given great impetus to private initiative and therefore, consequently, to the economic development of the country. These social developments are favoring the creation of an entrepreneurial class that will give impetus to the formation of the tertiary sector to the detriment of the primary sector in which a large part of Indian society is still employed today. Year after year, India is becoming an increasingly developed country ready to compete on the global market.
SOUTHEAST ASIA ECONOMIC ENGINE OF THE WORLD.
The powerful economic development of the Indian region will allow the birth of the largest economic center in the world. This hub will include all of south-western Asia and therefore: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam and the countries of Indochina, Indonesia and China. This macro-region will be the true economic engine of the world. With a market of around four billion inhabitants (over 50% of the world population) and an economic growth that will remain sustained for a long time driven by the development of the internal markets of the various countries. Not many have understood what is really happening in this sector of the global geopolitical scene. But it is certain that the geoeconomic and geopolitical dynamics of this part of the world will contribute to redefining the global geopolitical balance.
INDIAN’S RISE ON THE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC STAGE: EFFECTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF INDIA’S ECONOMIC RISE.
But how can India’s rise revolutionize the global geopolitical and geoeconomic framework? Simple. With the formation of a huge market that can absorb the agricultural and industrial production of many countries (China and Russia first and foremost) this will shift the economic focus of many nations from the West to the East and those that until a decade ago were the most sought-after markets in the world (the European and the US ones) will lose interest. On the other hand, they have represented a formidable economic and geopolitical weapon up to the present day. Until a few years ago it was enough for Europe and the United States to close their markets to the goods of a country to send it into economic crisis or overproduction (the economies of Latin America know something about this, until recently strangled from time to time with this system). Soon it won’t be like this anymore. The Indian and Chinese markets will represent a valid alternative to the Western ones (which among other things will be significantly reduced by the lack of growth in the European economies) and will be able to eclipse their importance. All this was already evident in the sanctions campaign unleashed by the West against Moscow at the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Washington and Brussels thought they would “cut off the legs” of the Russian economy by blocking the export of Russian raw materials to Europe (the objective was evidently to disrupt Russian finances and drive Moscow into bankruptcy). But the operation failed miserably since the Kremlin diverted its exports to China and India, finding in these two markets a valid alternative to the Western ones. Such an operation would have been impossible even just twenty years ago (since Asian markets would not have been able to compensate for the weight of Western markets). This is why the economic dynamics in South and South-East Asia are a harbinger of impressive changes on the global geopolitical scene of the 21st century. The extent of which not everyone has been able to fully understand.
INDIAN’S RISE ON THE GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC STAGE: EFFECTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF INDIA’S ECONOMIC RISE.: CONCLUSIONS.
India’s rise on the global geopolitical and geoeconomic chessboard of the 21st century not only reshapes the economic geography of the world. In fact it subverts geopolitical balances consolidated since the end of the Second World War. Together with the birth and development of the nearby economic power China, it is moving the economic engine of the world economy to Asia. Consequently, the geopolitical weight of this part of the world will increase dramatically as a result of a true translatio imperii that has been underway for several years now. Like it or not, Asia will be the beating heart of the world economy. With all the geoeconomic and geopolitical implications that will ensue.