The European geopolitical dilemma, West or East?

It is perhaps the “geopolitical question” of the century. And the fate of the geopolitically understood West will depend on it. Will Germany (and the whole of Europe with it) remain in the Western bloc and NATO or will it turn its back on its old allies to turn to the Eurasian bloc? The question is truly fundamental to understanding the geopolitical developments of the world to come. But let’s try to understand why.

Europe largest market in the world.

Despite the expansion of the most dynamic eastern markets (driven by demographic leverage and a frenetic growth in GDP in recent years), the European one, with its 520,000,000 high-income consumers, remains the largest and most attractive market of the world. It is no coincidence that the old continent has now become a battleground between the main global geopolitical players. On the one hand, Russia (on which Europe has always been heavily dependent for supplies of raw materials) and China. On the other hand, the USA and Great Britain which bind it with a military alliance, NATO, and with economic and commercial agreements which tie it to the Anglo-Saxon geopolitical orbit. The European economy has diversified greatly in recent years and has been able to grow thanks to a very strong increase in its exports to the immense Chinese market. Germany in particular, which has always been a great commercial power with exports and a trade balance surplus as its strong point, has increased exports to China so much that it has become Europe’s leading trading partner. The German geoeconomic vision has proven successful in recent years thanks precisely to its “positioning” on Asian markets which are (and will be in the near future) the most dynamic in the global geoeconomic context. In fact, Europe, having had its internal market saturated for years now, has an extreme need to pour its industrial products onto new markets. However, the dependence of European growth on Asian markets, which has become apparent in recent years, is alarming Washington and London. Which, just as they achieved a clear break in economic relations between Moscow and Brussels thanks to the war in Ukraine, now aim to sever (or significantly reduce) the ties between Brussels and Beijing. The issue is of vital importance for the Anglo-Saxon establishment. If the dependence of the European economy on the Chinese economy continues to grow in the coming years, it is likely that Europe will decide to embrace the East and abandon the West. Which would have enormous consequences on the global geopolitical scene. And it would lead to a strong downsizing of the Anglo-Saxon empire.

Europe’s industrial power.

Although the recent geopolitical events in Eastern Europe (Russian invasion of Ukraine and consequent US/NATO clash) pose serious questions about the development and competitiveness of the European industrial system in the near future, it is undeniable that it is, to date , one of the main industrial centers in the world. All types of products are produced in European industries and high-tech sectors such as the electronics industry, the automotive industry and the aeronautical industry, just to name a few, appear to be particularly developed. The whole of Europe (including Great Britain) accounts for around 17% of world trade. However, the economy of the old continent has appeared to be in stagnation for years with a domestic market unable to entirely absorb its industrial production. The growth of the European productive-industrial system today appears threatened by the difficulty (especially after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine) of finding cheap raw materials and on the other hand by the ever-increasing competitiveness of foreign industry even in highly sensitive sectors. high specialization and technology. The positioning on the enormous Chinese market (especially by the German industry which can boast exports of goods to China worth around 95 billion dollars) has in recent years obviated the critical issues of the domestic market in saturated and It has enabled truly remarkable economic momentum. The fact remains that the future does not appear simple for the European economy since the increase in the cost of raw materials (revealed in all its drama after the Russian invasion of Ukraine) will make its finished products much more expensive than before (and therefore less competitive on world markets). This will make it really difficult for the European industry to position itself on the markets of the future (I am thinking of those in the Indian region first and foremost) due to the costs of its products being too high (in the old continent the cost of labor is, among other things, much higher than in developing countries).

Europe is the outlet market for USA, China and Russia products.

Due to the size of its industry and its internal market, Europe is one of the economic engines of the world. On the one hand it is home to one of the most advanced processing industries in the world, on the other it is a huge market (with high-income consumers) into which goods of all sorts are incessantly poured. It therefore represents a fundamental outlet market for the products of the other great world industrial powers (USA, China, Japan) and for the producers of raw materials (Russia, Persian Gulf countries, African countries). It is for this reason that China has invested enormous financial resources to purchase, in whole or in part, the main container ports of the old continent (Rotterdam, Piraeus, Le Havre) and guarantee safe docking for Chinese ships transporting goods to Europe. For the same reason, Russia has exploited its “bargaining power” towards Europe to the end (i.e. until 2022, the year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which led to a break in trade relations with Brussels), in as a privileged supplier of low-cost materials for the industry of the old continent, to maximize its influence on it. Finally, for Washington and London, it represents not only an enormous privileged outlet market for their industrial (and agricultural) production but also a territorial base (Europe is dotted far and wide with US military bases ) from which to project its power onto strategic areas (think of the Middle East with its enormous hydrocarbon resources) of the Asian continent (where Anglo-Saxon influence has significantly reduced over the last ten years due to aggressive economic and military of Moscow and Beijing which have shown that they do not like the economic and military expansion of the USA in their zones of influence). From all this it is clear that the old continent, geopolitically understood, still represents, despite its evident economic and industrial decline, the beating heart of the world. And this is why a war is underway between the world’s main geopolitical actors to take control. Control which, all things considered, will give the winner, for the aforementioned reasons, a supremacy of a geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic nature.

Europe in the Anglo-Saxon geopolitical and geostrategic vision.

The maintenance of the military occupation of Europe by US and British troops remains the best guarantee for the Anglo-Saxons that the old continent remains in their zone of influence. On the other hand, in addition to representing a huge outlet market for English and American products, it also represents a weapon against anyone who dares to challenge Anglo-Saxon power. Just think of what happened during 2022 during the war between Russia and Ukraine. The USA has simply forced Brussels to cut off all economic activity with Moscow in order to block any Russian export to the European Union and therefore generate a disruption in Russian finances (due to the strong dependence of the Russian economy on the export of raw materials prime, directed mostly towards Europe). The USA therefore leveraged the very strong bargaining power of the old continent to drive Moscow into bankruptcy (the attempt to bring Russia into default having already failed thanks to the manipulation and consequent collapse of the oil price a few years ago). And that what was done against Russia could be done against other actors on the international geopolitical stage (China for example) for which it would be problematic to find alternative markets for their products. Furthermore, in the Anglo-Saxon geostrategic vision, it represents a springboard towards the Asian continent which will, in a few decades, be the beating heart of the planet’s economy. Europe as an Anglo-Saxon military outpost in Eurasia to contain on the one hand the expansion of the new Sino-Russian axis and on the other to project itself, if necessary, into adjacent geopolitical chessboards in case of necessity (think of the Middle East and the monarchies of the gulf to which Washington actively provides military protection).

Europe in the Sino-Russian geopolitical and geostrategic vision.

Chinese and Russian geopolitical and geostrategic interests and objectives in Europe are diametrically opposed to Anglo-Saxon ones. For years, Moscow and Beijing have been exercising their economic influence on the old continent (Russia as a strategic supplier of low-cost raw materials and China as a supplier of low-cost goods and an outlet market for the immense European industrial production) in order to to free it from Anglo-Saxon control. All this also appeared evident in the diplomatic phases that preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The game is still underway even if for the moment the European establishment has shown loyalty to its old allies. What is certain is that the interests between the two sides of the ocean no longer appear to be totally convergent. Indeed, in many dossiers they appear completely divergent. Just think of European energy supplies which, due to the block on imports of gas, oil and coal from Russia, will be more difficult and extremely more expensive (even gas supplies from the USA will be much more expensive than Russian ones) compromising the competitiveness of European industrial output on the global geoeconomic stage. Moscow and Beijing are working precisely on these differences, for which a Europe free from Anglo-Saxon domination would mean controlling what is still the largest outlet market in the world and pushing the USA back onto the American continent, depriving them of their main territorial base on the continent. Eurasian (with related military bases) and would make US power projection in the heart of Eurasia almost impossible.

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