THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN DREAM
The current geopolitical events lead to a serious reflection on the role that the USA ( and its strategic ally, England) play today on the global geopolitical chessboard. This is a consequence of the profound changes that in the last decade have significantly “shaken” the world order as we have known it from 1991 (the year of the collapse of the USSR) up to the present day. In fact, it seems clear that the balance of power (and with it the geopolitical balance) is being redefined on the global geopolitical scenario. Let’s try to understand why and how all this translates into a loss of power (and influence) of the USA and Great Britain over much of the world.
THE COLLAPSE OF THE USSR IN 1991, GLOBALIZATION AND US ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN THE WORLD.
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union (December 1991) the United States of America experienced its geopolitical apogee, remaining the only superpower in the world. The very strong reduction in the geopolitical and geostrategic role of Moscow in the 1990s decreed the very strong economic and military expansion of the Western bloc which incorporated all the satellite states of the USSR in Eastern Europe (including East Germany which was annexed to the Western one) and expanded its influence throughout the planet. The 90s of the 20th century were undoubtedly the years in which the power of the Anglo-Saxon Empire reached its peak and its dominion was almost unchallenged. A Russia whose bankruptcy (of which the USA was the architect thanks to the manipulation of the price of oil in agreement with Saudi Arabia) undermined the foundations of any projection of power outside its borders could no longer counteract it. And China was still unable to counteract it, as it began its powerful economic growth in those years. Precisely in those years the USA launched globalization (otherwise called globalization) or that process of world economic integration and development of global trade aimed at promoting US economic penetration on the world geoeconomic chessboard. The US economy benefited beyond belief and the hegemonic power experienced unprecedented prosperity and economic expansion in this period. No one seemed able to contain his aspirations and no one seemed to be able to stop or counter his rise. The American dream, geopolitically understood, seemed to have become reality.
THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN DREAM: RISE OF CHINESE POWER AND THE “RETURN” OF PUTIN’S RUSSIA.
During the first decade of the 21st century, however, things began to change in the global geopolitical context. On the one hand, Russia, under the leadership of Putin, showed that it wanted to quickly return to the role of great power that it held until the 1980s, on the other, China was the protagonist of the most vertical and powerful economic growth and industrial that history has ever known. Over the course of twenty years, therefore, the hegemonic role of the USA has been strongly questioned despite all its attempts to anticipate and constitute a “constrictive belt” of vassal states along the Russian and Chinese borders (strategy also known as the “anaconda strategy” which consisted of creating a “line” of vassal states, dotted with US military bases, along the borders of Russia and China aimed at “crushing” any attempt at expansion by Moscow and Beijing). Both the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and that of Afghanistan in 2001 were part of this strategy. And today both the war in Ukraine and the US military support for Taiwan are part of the same geostrategic vision. Moscow and Beijing have responded across the board by increasing their military spending and strengthening their armies on the one hand and by launching a powerful economic expansion in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East on the other which has impressively redefined the spheres of influence of the great powers on the global geopolitical stage.
THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN DREAM: LOSS OF SPHERES OF INFLUENCE IN ASIA, AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA DUE TO SYNORUSSIAN ECONOMIC AND MILITARY EXPANSION.
The geographical reduction of Anglo-Saxon influence on the planet is evident on the map. If after the collapse of the USSR even Russia suffered the “economic invasion” of the USA (American and English companies bought the rights to exploit important Russian hydrocarbon deposits) and was effectively under the Anglo-Saxon yoke, today the situation appears radical mutated. In fact, US influence in the world now seems to be relegated to Europe (where in recent years there has been a certain success of Anglo-Saxon expansionism thanks also to the successful coup in Ukraine in 2014 which aligned the country on positions radically pro-Western) and to the countries of the British Commonwealth. For the rest, in recent years there has been a drastic loss of influence on relevant geopolitical stages such as that of the Middle East (with the formation of a pro-Russian Shiite axis which has its pivot in Iran), Africa where the penetration economic and military of Moscow and Beijing have fearfully reduced the centuries-old English and French interests on the continent and even in Latin America (“the backyard” of the USA and their exclusive economic zone until the middle of the last century) where today we are witnessing a large group of countries (Brazil, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, China, Peru, etc.) that establish privileged relations (and often with a clearly anti-colonial function and therefore against the USA) with Moscow and Beijing. The profound reduction in the geopolitical and geoeconomic sphere of influence of the USA will inevitably lead to a weakening of its geostrategic influence. It is highly probable that a large number of countries in the near future will no longer allow the USA (even under pressure from Moscow and Beijing) to host military bases on their territory. This would obviously lead to a strong weakening of the ability to project US military power over the entire world.
THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN DREAM: ROLE OF GENDARME OF THE THREATENED WORLD.
All this has put in serious danger the role of the USA as policeman of the world and guarantor of the “PAX AMERICANA” as it had been taking shape over the last thirty years (“PAX AMERICANA” which the war in Ukraine has perhaps canceled forever by decreeing the ‘beginning of a new phase of global geopolitical instability and conflict, military and otherwise, between the great powers. Of course, the United States of America still possesses 11 fleets (with related aircraft carriers) and has the fleet on its side English (still one of the most fearsome naval fleets in the world) as well as the naval fleet of EU countries. This still allows the West to exercise an effective thalassocracy and the ability to project its military power by sea to every corner of the globe. But the impressive strengthening of the military fleets of Moscow and Beijing in recent years constitutes a serious threat to the continuation of Anglo-Saxon thalassocracy. The presence of Russian and Chinese naval vessels (as well as the fleet of Russian nuclear submarines) in the world’s seas is a source of serious concern in Washington and London. Their role as policemen of the world, exercised unchallenged since 1991, is today seriously questioned.
THE DECLINE OF AMERICAN DREAM: FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ROLE OF THE DOLLAR.
But there is also another aspect, not purely military, which casts shadows on the Anglo-Saxon military apparatus. It is represented by the financial crisis (which has not yet clearly emerged) into which both the USA and Great Britain are plunging. Both are the major financial powers in the world and boast an enormous level of debt (equal to or greater than the GDP of the two countries, i.e. the value of their product). In recent years, the USA in particular has experienced a truly monstrous increase in its public debt which has reached 129% of GDP. On the other hand, there is and will be no way to stop this trend since the US trade deficit has been constantly increasing for years and the country’s economic growth is essentially at a standstill. In such an economic situation (in a country that has a military budget of almost 800 billion dollars) there is no way to avoid a bankruptcy of unimaginable proportions and with worldwide consequences probably much worse than those of the stock market crash of 1929. On the other hand, maintaining the Western financial status quo involves two paths that will be increasingly difficult to follow in the future. One is that of the forced and intensive plundering of the resources of one’s own areas of influence which represent camphor injections with which to continue to kick the can (remember that the Anglo-Saxon area of economic influence has shrunk drastically in the last 10 years in favor of of Moscow and Beijing) for some time. The other is to expect the world to continue financing US debt by buying government bonds issued by Washington. This will be possible if the dollar continues to be the global reserve currency and if it continues to be the reference currency in the world for the purchase of raw materials (thus ensuring that the savings of the large raw material exporting countries and those who boast a large surplus in their trade balance can be almost “automatically” invested in US treasury bonds, de facto financingthe government and the US war machine). However, we know that China and Russia, the main geopolitical rivals of Washington and London, are actively working to change this state of affairs. In short, they are trying to encourage the use of their national currencies in transactions with their trading partners. Conceptually we can say that they are favoring the financial disengagement of the main creditors of the Anglo-Saxon hegemon which would not allow the latter to stay alive “with other people’s money”. In summary we can say that a financial war is underway parallel to the military one. Its objective is, from the Russian and Chinese perspective, to cut off the living of the Anglo-Saxon empire and lead it to bankruptcy and financial ruin. From the Anglo-Saxon perspective, however, the war has the aim of maintaining the existing financial status quo conceived by the Anglo-Saxons for their exclusive advantage. It must be said that specific geoeconomic factors are also working against Washington in this sense. The fracking revolution (i.e. the extraction of hydrocarbons with the hydraulic fracturing technique) in North America, for example, if on the one hand it has allowed the USA to obtain energy self-sufficiency, on the other hand it is distancing a historic ally (and creditor) of the US from the orbit of the dollar and is pushing it into trade agreements with China that exclude the use of US currency.
THE AMERICAN DREAM IN THE FACE OF THE CURRENT THUCYDIDES TRAP.
All this allows us to outline the contours of a true Thucydides trap in which emerging powers are actively challenging the hegemonic power. It is an all-out challenge with no holds barred (and only the nuclear deterrent avoids, at least for the moment, a total and global war like the First and Second World Wars). Faced with such circumstances the Anglo-Saxon empire seems a shadow of its former self. The American dream, geopolitically understood, a melancholic, distant memory.