GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS TODAY: THE GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS OF A CHANGING WORLD
The geopolitical analyst is today called to a very difficult task. Difficult because his analysis concerns the dynamics of power in a world war scenario in which the balance of power between the great powers of our planet is being redefined. In summary, the power system that arose after the end of the Second World War and after the collapse of the USSR is undergoing a heavy downsizing to the advantage of the Asian superpowers (Russia and China) which are demanding a profound economic and geopolitical reset of the latter. And, since it was not possible to achieve this through diplomacy, the word went to arms with all the consequences that this entails (and will entail). In such a scenario, very similar to that of the two world wars fought in the 20th century, geopolitical analysis is called upon to shed light on the warlike and diplomatic developments that are maturing on the global geopolitical scene. Which isn’t always easy. And often not even very welcome. Too many people who, instead of carrying out analyses, raise flags. And there are too many interests at stake in a planetary conflict that will have to decide who will take over the reins of the world. We realize the stakes and the historical significance of the current events. And we are also perfectly aware of the fact that the well-being of all of us, Western and otherwise, depends on this war. But we believe that altering the analysis of the situation in progress does not honor the geopolitical discipline as such nor does it help to understand the true nature of the geopolitical developments taking place. That the common man should instead understand as much as possible. Because that’s what his life depends on and, ultimately, his future too.
GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS TODAY: THE STATE OF THE ART OF WORLD GEOPOLITICS
It is impressive to see how our analyzes have predicted the geopolitical and geostrategic developments that are now maturing on the main geopolitical chessboards of the world. Which applies both to the war in Eastern Europe and to the radicalization of the conflict between Washington and London on the one hand (with related vassals) and Moscow and Beijing on the other. The world is experiencing a struggle for global power the likes of which has not been seen since 1945. The radicalization of the conflict is not only evident on a military level (with the all-out intervention of the West in Eastern Europe) but also on an economic level. Russian raw materials have just been banned (and are therefore no longer negotiable on the markets of London, New York and Chicago) from Western financial markets (with already evident signs of an increase in their prices given the reduction in supply). This means not only that there will be, in the near future, further inflationary pressures in the world economy but also that the breakdown in economic relations between Moscow and the West is now total and definitive. Unable to defeat Russia militarily, Western political leaders are attempting, for the umpteenth time, to starve the Eurasian giant. We honestly don’t understand how such a move could destroy the Kremlin’s finances at a time when China (and partly also India) can buy everything that the West no longer buys. And since Moscow is fundamental to Beijing’s geopolitical goals and aspirations of world domination (RISE OF CHINA, CHINESE SUPERPOWER (geopolitika.it)) we have no doubts about the fact that the Dragon will provide Russia with the necessary parachute to address the fallout from sanctions. Not only. Russian raw materials will now be traded exclusively on Asian financial markets, giving the latter more importance and authority (as well as considerable influence in determining their prices) than they have had up to now. Giving further impetus to the creation of a financial system totally independent from Western finance. Which makes the situation of Western financial capitalism increasingly weak and less influential. This is also due to the colossal size of the public debt of Western countries following the endless war effort undertaken after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Which requires unprecedented money printing with inflationary consequences that condemn (and will condemn) the economic development of the entire West in the years to come. And that’s not all.If the geopolitical situation in the Middle East were to heat up further, Tehran could close the Strait of Hormuz and block the export of hydrocarbons from the entire Persian Gulf area. Until a few years ago, such a move would have been unthinkable (despite official declarations). As well as the direct attack on Israeli territory which stunned the world (literally unthinkable even just three years ago) and which demonstrated the strength and technological development of the Persian country. Such a scenario would have dramatic repercussions for Western geopolitical aims. First of all, it would further unbalance the West’s military commitment in a “secondary” geopolitical chessboard, further weakening the latter’s military commitment in the Far East (since the containment of Beijing remains the primary objective of Anglo-Saxon geopolitics). It would also cause inflationary pressures and an economic crisis (as a consequence of the explosion in the prices of petroleum products), devastating especially for the most important vassals of Washington and London. The economies of European countries and Japan, still heavily dependent on the hydrocarbons extracted in the Middle East, would experience very strong economic repercussions with unpredictable consequences on the stability of the latter’s internal front. It is a scenario that could be strongly desired by Moscow and Beijing in particular to weaken and defeat the Western bloc. Since the Middle Empire, thanks to the supplies of hydrocarbons by land from Russia, would not be affected at all by such geopolitical developments (which, on the other hand, would bring the West to its knees, undermining its possibilities of military and economic resistance). The Iranian missile attack on Israel would be proof of this. In fact, it is unthinkable that Tehran could have decided on such a move on its own. Without the Sino-Russian approval the Islamic Republic would not have lifted a finger. Which shows the full intention of the two former red giants to give not only a turning point to the balance of power in the Middle East but also a strong warning to a West that does not give up on its geopolitical aims (aimed at the economic and military containment of Beijing, to the destruction of its most important ally, Russia, and therefore, all things considered, to the maintenance of the centuries-old hegemony on the planet).
GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS TODAY: POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE CURRENT WORLD WAR
The degeneration into open and large-scale conflict of the military and geostrategic confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran could be the most important new development of the ongoing world war. This would be entirely functional to the interests of Moscow and Beijing for the aforementioned reasons. And it would be an appendix to the military and commercial confrontation underway in the Red Sea. The supply, probably already made, of a batch of SU-35 fighters to the Iranian Air Force warns us that Russia and China are serious about the Middle East. And they have perhaps already decided, for their own geopolitical interests, to develop wide-ranging war events in this geopolitical chessboard. The supply of S-400 anti-aircraft systems and highly advanced Russian electronic warfare complexes could be added to them. Which would make the geostrategic picture of the Middle East much more complex for the Anglo-Saxon empire. And his military victory is almost impossible. In addition to forcing Washington and London into a global war effort unprecedented in history. With entirely probable outcomes of military defeat and economic debacle. The point is that if Moscow and Beijing had already decided in this sense it would be impossible for the Anglo-Saxon empire not to throw itself into the fray. Also in consideration of the unconditional military and economic support that the latter has guaranteed to its very close Middle Eastern ally. Which, however, would only lead the West into another geopolitical trap (after those of Gaza and Ukraine) which could prove truly fatal this time.