To date, no one can know with certainty how much the war expenditure of the various states involved in the Ukrainian conflict amounts to. This is because the governments of the belligerent countries have no interest in disclosing such a burning (and not very popular) aspect to their public opinions. Generally everything is covered with war propaganda whose task is precisely to omit data or falsify it without too many problems. In extreme cases (and this is the case of the Italian state, for example) the whole affair ends up being covered up with state secrecy. But why did the Italian government go so far as to secret all the information relating to military supplies to Kiev, concealing the extent and cost of the same? Million dollar question. Let’s try to understand the reason for such an extreme and dangerous move.
THE COST OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE: SOCIAL EXPENSES AND WAR EXPENSES
The Western political leadership now seems so much a victim of its own hysteria towards Russia that it no longer realizes the condition of its own “internal fronts”. There are multiple signs that the economic crisis in the West is worsening and there do not appear to be any conditions for a recovery in the near future. Inflation remains very high and the cost of money is now at levels that have always anticipated severe recessions. The level of public and private debt has reached levels never seen in the history of humanity and continues to grow without the real possibility that can be stopped somehow. On the other hand, the growth of the Western economy has been driven in the last thirty years by two levers which, for different reasons, seem to no longer be able to operate at their best. The first is, precisely, debt. But at current debt levels it is no longer possible to rely on this leverage recklessly. Indeed, it must be contained to avoid bank and corporate collapses as well as state defaults and a systemic crash. The second is the exploitation of the economic resources of countries controlled by the West and dependent on it. In particular we are referring to developing countries subjected to neocolonial exploitation. But the number of these countries has shrunk significantly in the last twenty years as many of these nations have moved to economic cooperation with Russia and China and have rebelled against the exploitation of the old colonizers (only the countries of the former French colonial empire in Africa they remain in the Western orbit but in recent years a process of rebellion has begun in this area which does not allow the European and US establishment to sleep peacefully). Even the expansion in Europe, which began with the collapse of the USSR and which had its culmination with the successful color revolution in Kiev in 2014, is now militarily opposed by Russia which wants to regain possession of the immense agricultural and mineral resources of the Ukraine. With devastating implications on global geopolitical balances. To maintain their control over Ukraine, Europe and the United States are forced to spend crazy sums that are actually unsustainable in the long term. Not only the cost of the war itself but also that relating to the “support” of Ukraine which is a totally bankrupt country. All this to the detriment of social spending which is undergoing a sharp reduction (examples are the pension reform in France, approved by bypassing parliament and largely unpopular in the country beyond the Alps, and the dismantling of the welfare state in Italy where the government is taking steps to undermine the citizen’s income and basic benefits for the unemployed). From all this it is clear that economic development in the West is seriously compromised and that social tensions within it are destined to increase. This is the reason for the state secrecy placed by the Italian government on military supplies to Kiev. How would Italians react if they knew the extent of the cost of the war while their country’s welfare state was progressively dismantled? Probably bad, learning that the money to “defend” Ukraine is there while it is missing for that social protection network that was actively increased with the pandemic crisis of 2020. So it is better to keep everything secret. In order to put a veil on the issue and not fuel a social conflict that could lead to dramatic consequences for the beautiful country. Certainly, however, this situation cannot last long and the progressive impoverishment of Western society will inevitably lead to turbulence on the “home front” and mass protests. How can we make our public opinion understand that it is no longer (and will no longer be) possible to live beyond our means? How can we explain to them that the two economic levers mentioned above now appear completely compromised and that we will never return to the economic standards (and quality of life) that have characterized Western societies in the last thirty years? All of this simply won’t be explained. The skills of mainstream propaganda will be used to hide the drama of the situation. Or maybe there will be another pandemic crisis built specifically to distract the masses from the profound economic and social changes that await them.
THE COST OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE: FINANCIAL DISORDER COMING
The economic and financial situation of the West appears even more serious if we consider the inflationary pressures and the foolish policies of the central banks that have fueled them. We are faced with a vicious circle from which, in all likelihood, we will never escape. A vicious circle that also seems to be fueled by the increase in the cost of raw materials that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The era of cheap raw materials appears to be over. And Western processing industries need to take note. This will result in an increase in the costs of finished products and, consequently, the loss of competitiveness of Western goods on world markets. With a consequent decline in industrial production and an increase in layoffs and unemployment. At the same time, the increase in interest rates operated by central banks will lead to such an increase in the cost of money as to put the credit system as a whole into crisis. This too will lead to a sharp drop in consumption and an increase in unemployment. With easily predictable economic and social consequences. Even in the case of a rethink of the central banks’ monetary policy followed by a sharp reduction in interest rates, things would not get better. And if on the one hand this would give new life to the credit sector and consumption, on the other it would transform galloping inflation into hyperinflation, damaging (perhaps irremediably) the purchasing power of wages. It is therefore easy to understand how the economic situation in the West is truly desperate. No financial engineering operation will be able to subvert the course of events. In our opinion there is no way to reverse the economic dynamic that has taken shape in Europe and the United States in recent years. Even more so now that powerful geopolitical rivals are standing in the way and almost seem to mock the hegemonic claim that the West still thinks it can boast over the entire world.
THE COST OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE: CONCLUSIONS
In this brief examination of the geopolitical, social and economic framework of the West we have voluntarily abstained from talking about figures in the awareness that what is known is not what it really is (we do not know and will never know the true cost of war in Ukraine since the political leadership has no interest in providing us with realistic information about it) but almost always the result of propaganda and mystifications of all sorts. We preferred to focus on the present and future critical issues of the Western social, economic and financial system. Obviously in relation to the war dynamics that have taken shape since February 24, 2022 (start date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine). The future of the West also depends (or perhaps above all) on the outcome of this conflict. If he fails to prevail (and historical reasons, already revealed in other articles on this blog, make us believe it is entirely likely that he will not succeed) and he will not succeed in his aim of bringing the rising rebel powers back to order , the world order imposed by the Anglo-Saxon empire will crack to the point of becoming extinct in a relatively short (historical) time. We just have to see how all this, precisely, will happen.