Historia vitae magistra? Is history a teacher of life? It may seem like a trivial question but it isn’t at all. Even more so today when the world seems to be living through the nightmare of a third world war, that is, a global conflict between the major world powers and their vassals. The point is that few seem interested in understanding the cause, nature and possible developments of the current global geopolitical and geostrategic circumstances. And this is more than understandable since propaganda always seems to cast a shadow over the dramatic geopolitical reality we are currently experiencing. For example, except for Pope Francis I, no politician has ever dared to talk about World War III. Why? Yet this is what it is about. Our politicians prefer to hide behind empty and, in a certain sense, even childish slogans. Phrases like: “We must defend Ukraine from brutal unprovoked aggression” are truly hilarious. And they make us understand how information is permeated by war propaganda. And history, what does history tell us? Alas, he says that we are reliving the drama of a hegemonic attempt by emerging powers to the detriment of those that are still hegemonic. The current global geopolitical scenario follows, so precisely, that of the decade 1905-1915 or that of 1930-1940. We know well what follows. And we also know that this time too the ongoing war will bring very serious consequences. Right-thinking people should not be deceived. It won’t be a walk in the park. This is already demonstrated by the disconnect between propaganda and reality which manifested itself almost brazenly in this first year of the war. We were told: “Sanctions will drive Russia into bankruptcy”, or “Putin is suffering from cancer, suffers terrible pain from chemotherapy treatments and doesn’t have long to live” or even “Russia has almost finished its missiles and will soon no longer be able to carry out missile attacks on Ukrainian territory”. All conditions that have not occurred and which probably will not occur in the near future. Meanwhile we learn from independent sources that the Ukrainian army has exhausted practically all its material reserves and a large part of the human ones which the West will now have to provide if it wants the pantomime to continue beyond the limit of bearability. How many soldiers died in the ranks of the Kiev army? Nobody can say for sure. But it is assumed that, to date, around 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died plus an unspecified number of NATO soldiers and foreign volunteers about whom, the latter operating under cover and disguising themselves as the Ukrainian army, we will know little or nothing about in the future. How many are wounded among the Ukrainian army? Even in this case no one can answer with certainty. But it is hypothesized that there could be much more than the 150,000 fallen soldiers. Who will pay the economic and social cost of this “slaughter”? Even in this case, no one can answer with certainty because it is not known what will remain of Ukraine after the war. But if Kiev has exhausted almost all of its military potential, how can it still talk about victory against the Russian troops and the liberation of the areas occupied by Moscow’s army? It’s impossible to answer this question either. But propaganda tells us that powerful new weapons are arriving from Europe and the United States that will reverse the course of events. What are these weapons? It seems that there are about a hundred of the latest tanks and, perhaps, fourth generation aircraft. Can these weapons really allow the Kiev army to defeat the Russians in the field? Of course not. So why do we continue with this staging? The answer could be embarrassing.
WORLD POWER AT DANCE.
The truth is, it’s getting bad. Very bad, for Europe and the entire West. And not only from a purely military and geostrategic point of view. It is also getting very bad from a purely economic point of view. The signals coming from the real economy are merciless. If analyzed outside the propaganda context to which we are subjected, they offer us a truly worrying scenario. The Western economy is in check. In Europe as in the USA there is no longer growth. We float with the tide of state subsidies (are we at helicopter money?) aimed at the less well-off to keep the situation afloat. However, the war, unexpectedly, continues and the war scenario becomes increasingly grim. In Russia, Putin did not fall and the Russian army was not defeated. The Russian economy has not experienced any collapse due to economic sanctions as hoped for in the West. This means that more of the West’s huge economic resources will have to be thrown into the Ukrainian black hole. Ukraine, on the other hand, not only needs weapons but money for its pension system, for what remains of its welfare state and for the needs of its state machinery. The West takes care of all this. Kiev has nothing left. Neither economic nor military resources. Nothing at all. The war has destroyed everything and everything has to be imported from abroad. The price for Washington and Brussels is very high. But it does not matter. Russia must be defeated. Whatever it takes. What is at stake is world power that could otherwise emigrate to the East. Horrible thing auditu for the Western establishment. So it doesn’t matter what happens. Russia delenda. Once and for all. It doesn’t matter if all the historical attempts made in this direction have failed miserably. The West will move forward. Even with an economy on its last legs and with military technology inferior (in quality if not in quantity) to that of Moscow. What is the point of sending third or fourth generation planes to Kiev? To nothing. Western military experts know well that such means cannot survive comparison with the latest generation Russian anti-aircraft systems. They would massacre them and transform Ukraine into a cemetery for Western aviation. Why is there now so much insistence on sending planes to Kiev at a time when the Russians have already, de facto, do I impose a no fly zone over Ukrainian skies? Because in the West we no longer know what to say. We are victims of a political caste that does not want to admit defeat in any way and that offers false solutions for a victory that will not happen. Even at a strategic level we are making mistakes that are reminiscent of those of the Wermacht in the Second World War. What is the point of defending indefensible positions to the last man? This is what is happening in Bakhmut and other places in Donbass. We in no way want to admit the defeat that sooner or later, inevitably, will occur. All this costs immense human and material resources. Who will pay for all this? And why persist so much in a lost cause? Wouldn’t it be better to find an agreement that includes a partition of Ukraine rather than continuing to convince ourselves that we can bend Putin? It almost seems as if the Western establishment has locked itself inside a high ivory tower from which it no longer sees the horizon but a fantastic, rarefied and surreal world.
CONCLUSIONS.
The beliefs of the Western political leadership of a failure of the Russian economy (as well as those of a military victory on the ground in Ukraine) as a consequence of the economic sanctions imposed by Washington and Brussels first turned into desire, then into hope and now, alas ‘, in mere utopia. We are reliving what the Napoleonic army and the German Wermacht already experienced. At first the euphoria for the war in Russia, for the conquests achieved, for the world power within reach. Then the depression resulting from the bogging down at the front, the enormous mobilization of the enemy, and the growing losses. Hence the desperation for retreat, for the enormous losses suffered and for the awareness that you cannot win on Russian soil. The current situation is nothing new. At least for those who know the story. Would anyone bother to teach it to our politicians? Well, I would. As long as they show interest. The problem is that their perspective is exquisitely Machiavellian. They are interested in the interest of Western nations in essentially geopolitical terms. In terms, therefore, of actual truth, of small-scale power. How long will it be before they realize they’ve bitten off more than they can chew? I hope soon. And you ?