ENDGAME IN UKRAINE. WHY WESTERN HEGEMONY RISKS GREATLY IN CASES OF MILITARY DEFEAT
More than two years after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, the fog is starting to clear over the war events taking place in Eastern Europe. The war is essentially lost for the Anglo-Saxon empire and there is no possibility, in our humble opinion, that the course of events can be reversed in favor of Washington and London. Despite the renewed vigor of the war effort in favor of Kiev and of Western diplomatic action in Beijing. Moscow’s war of attrition strategy has literally exhausted the Western army. Which, in the wishes of the Anglo-Saxon establishment, should have achieved the objective of defeating and humiliating the Russian army and reconquering all the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Kremlin. The war has in fact revealed the clear superiority of the Russian army in the field and, consequently, the impossibility of the West to prevail militarily over its bitter geopolitical antagonist. At this point it is fair to ask. What will happen now? The West threatens to intervene (officially) in the conflict (but has already done so, albeit undercover, since the beginning of the hostilities) in the event of a definitive collapse of the Ukrainian defense lines in Donbass and a further advance of the army Russian towards the Dneper. Talk in the wind, some would say. Geopolitical and geostrategic chatter, some would say. What is certain is that the Western establishment seems increasingly in the grip of panic and despair now that the extent of the war disaster in Ukraine appears in all its drama. Not only for the geostrategic consequences that it will inevitably entail (with Russia’s return to the role of world superpower) but also for the economic ones since the impossibility of militarily defeating Moscow and, consequently, of isolating Beijing on the international geopolitical scene it will ensure that the two red giants proceed with great strides towards the creation of an alternative economic and currency system to the Western one. We have already had the opportunity to clarify the scope and consequences of these developments and how devastating they are for Anglo-Saxon hegemony in the world (https://www.geopolitika.it/en/geopolitics-today-the-global-geopolitical-scenario-and-the-bad-omens-of-the-ongoing-world-war/). Moscow’s defeat in the ongoing war was fundamental for the West to retain the scepter of world power and the fact of not achieving it places Western power in a very dangerous state of fragility. Which will become increasingly greater should an all-out intervention in Eastern Europe be decided in the hope of being able to obtain a geostrategic victory which appears quite unlikely and perhaps completely impossible at the moment. In fact, Washington and London are at an impasse. If they do not double or triple their efforts to prevent the Sino-Russian counterpower from taking over the world economic and geopolitical scene, they will de facto renounce their domination of the world (which we consider completely unlikely). If, however, they bring the conflict to the highest level in a scenario of total war they will still have to suffer devastating economic repercussions and, if defeated, they will see the size of their economies and the value of their respective currencies collapse (with consequent general impoverishment throughout the West). In the event of victory, however, they could still play a central role in global geopolitics and geoeconomics. But in a world devastated by a war that would dramatically reduce its production potential.
ENDGAME IN UKRAINE: THE DISCONNECTION FROM THE REALITY OF WESTERN POLITICAL LEADERSHIP
The problem is that, considering the economic and military potential that Moscow and Beijing can deploy in a scenario of total war, a military victory for the West appears completely impossible today. Washington and London might have stood a chance if they had demonstrated, as they claimed, that they possessed superior military technology to that of the Kremlin. But the ongoing conflict has shown that this is not the case (despite a military budget unparalleled in the world). If we consider the human and industrial resources that China and Russia can use against the West, we realize that the latter has no chance of victory against Moscow and Beijing. And in the West they know this very well. This is why the Western establishment is trying, now that the military disaster in Ukraine can no longer be hidden even by propaganda, to put pressure on the Dragon to stop supporting the Russian war machine, even at an industrial level. But, as we have already had the opportunity to underline on this blog, it is not realistic to think that the Middle Kingdom could abandon its most precious ally (https://www.geopolitika.it/en/the-alliance-between-russia-and-china-and-the-global-geopolitical-scenario/) in favor of the West. A West that the Dragon is actively challenging for world power and which, once Russia collapses, would do everything to bring down Beijing too along with its hegemonic claims. So we really can’t understand what the meaning of the repeated Western diplomatic missions to Beijing is. Since they too have no chance of achieving anything concrete. The military, economic and diplomatic action of the West appears increasingly nebulous and disconnected from the reality of global geopolitical dynamics. And this is really worrying. If only because it does not seem to respond to the geopolitical reality of today’s world but to that of the 90s of the twentieth century (revealing a total loss of the sense of reality on the part of the Western establishment). Someone needs to explain to the Western political leadership what the state of the art of world geopolitics is today. And also the economic dynamics that are becoming evident in this part of the world and beyond (https://www.geopolitika.it/en/the-great-world-economic-and-financial-reset-real-cause-of-the-ongoing-world-war/). May God protect the West and enlighten it on the right path to follow.