CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: HOW THE WORLD GEOPOLITICAL EQUILIBRIUM IS CHANGING
While the global geopolitical dynamic is increasingly “involved” and focused on the war in Ukraine, at a geoeconomic level, developments are emerging with potentially very profound repercussions on future global geopolitical structures. In particular, a progressive dedollarization is materializing which, far from decreasing, seems to increasingly increase. According to data recently provided by zerohedge, only 47% of world trade is currently “transacted” in US dollars. Although this statement cannot be verified with certainty, it is undeniable that the greenback, subjected to strong pressure from the geopolitical antagonists of the USA, is experiencing a phase of crisis and is losing appeal especially in the countries of the southern hemisphere. This is also demonstrated by what emerged in South America during the so-called “Brasilia consensus”. In this conference, which was very little talked about in the West, the states of Latin America decided to definitively leave behind the Monroe Doctrine and two hundred years of colonial exploitation by North America. In particular, it was decided to strengthen economic and military cooperation between South American countries, to develop a single market on the continent and (hear, hear) to encourage the creation of a single currency to be used in commercial transactions and which frees up trade in Latin America from its dependence on the US dollar. It goes without saying that the economic road map established in Brasilia was decided in agreement with Moscow and Beijing and that its objective is to weaken not only the role of the West in Latin America but also the weight of the US currency in global trade. The role of the US currency in the trade of countries outside the “Western orbit” will also be the subject of discussion at the next BRICS summit in Johannesburg next August. It is not yet known with certainty what decisions will be taken but it is certain that dedollarization will be discussed and attempts will be made to encourage in every way transactions in national currencies of the BRICS countries (yuan, rubles, rupees, reals) to the detriment of those in US dollars. Well-informed sources warn that a plan for a progressive disengagement from US debt (US treasury bonds) by the countries belonging to the BRICS club could be considered. Which, in itself, would mean driving another nail into the coffin of the dollar and the Western financial system (which has the US currency as its pivot). The economic war between East and West therefore intensifies more and more and is accompanied by an increasingly bitter military war with no possibility of solution. If this path is actually undertaken by the BRICS countries, we will soon witness the return of an enormous flow of money to the USA with a consequent surge in the inflationary (or hyperinflationary) dynamic which will lay the foundations for a further impoverishment of American society and a drastic drop in consumption (and related economic depression). At the same time, the Chinese response to the chip war waged by Washington against Beijing is becoming clear. The great game of rare earths has begun, of which China is by far the largest producer in the world. Beijing has in fact decided in recent days to severely limit the export of gallium and germanium. These two metals play a fundamental role in the communications and defense industries. And without them, the Western high-tech chip industry could be very negatively affected. Targeting the supply chain of US and EU high-tech industries is a first step in an economic war that is only just beginning and could have devastating repercussions for this industrial sector. All this in an unencouraging scenario for the global economy since the economic signals coming from China indicate a drastic reduction in the Dragon’s economic expansion (also in relation to the global economic situation which is showing dangerous signs of weakness). All this should make us reflect on what is about to unfold in the world economy and its potential consequences. In summary, the military war is “accompanied” by an economic war that could have devastating repercussions on the entire planet in defiance of official data that delude us about an economic growth that exists only in the imagination of right-thinking people.
CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND THE “TELLURICAL MOVEMENTS” OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
As written several times on this blog, the war in Ukraine is just one piece of a much larger game being played on the global geopolitical chessboard. It is only the main theater of war but, perhaps, not even the most important. The game between East and West is mainly economic and each of the two actors is actively working towards the economic destruction of the other (since a war victory for just one of the actors involved is not possible). The conventional war that is taking place (not only in Ukraine but also in Africa and the Middle East) also represents a means of economic exhaustion of the adversary. The data on Western involvement in Ukraine, for example, are simply impressive. The commitment is far greater than what was declared and, despite the appalling losses (both in men and equipment) suffered, a simply astonishing influx of reinforcements continues (previously found only in the two world wars of the 20th century). . This gives us an idea not only of the military commitment undertaken but also of its titanic costs. All this in order to multiply the Russian commitment (and the related war costs) in the hope that Moscow cannot withstand such a financial effort for long. The Kremlin is responding not only with a war of attrition (as it usually does in war) worthy of the great wars fought in the last two hundred years of Russian history (the aim of which is to increasingly increase the country’s military spending adversary to the point of economic exhaustion) but also with the war on the dollar and with the control of oil prices in agreement with the Saudis (in order to keep inflation high in Western countries with all the negative economic repercussions that this entails). In short, the East and the West are each working for the economic destruction of the other. What is underway is a war for hegemony with no holds barred. Which will soon have dramatic economic repercussions for the entire world. Those who believed that the global “belle epoque” following the collapse of the USSR could last forever will soon have to change their minds. It is already over even if most people haven’t understood it yet. And with it the well-being and economic prosperity it had produced (especially in the West).