The geopolitics of the West between energy transition and economic autarky


Developments on the global geopolitical stage warn us that something very profound is taking place in the global geoeconomy. In particular, there are two aspects that are upsetting the global economic balance that has characterized the last seventy years of world history. The first is the end of world trade, globalization and the withdrawal of the West (economically understood) into itself. The other (closely connected with the autarchic path that seems to be taking hold in this part of the world) is the loss of control of raw material prices by the Western financial elites. This last aspect, in particular, is proving to be very problematic for the Western establishment as inflationary dynamics can be controlled by controlling the prices of raw materials, which have a major impact on the performance of the economy. If, as it seems, OPEC+ is no longer willing to act on the basis of Washington’s dictates regarding the relationship between supply and demand for crude oil, this means that the West has lost the ability to control and “direct ” the inflationary dynamics that can determine the performance of one’s economy. The situation is truly problematic since Saudi Arabia, in harmony with the other giant of global crude oil production, Russia, has repeatedly hinted that it wants to stabilize the price of crude oil at around 80-100 dollars per barrel even in the case of a global economic recession (oil output would automatically be cut in relation to lower market demand). All this would require an all-out restrictive policy from the central banks which would be forced to keep the cost of money high without the possibility of giving impetus to the economy with a policy of cheap money (literally putting a noose around the neck of the Western economy). The West has well understood the threat represented by these dynamics and has therefore launched (officially “for the good of the world” but in truth for its own specific geopolitical interests) the energy transition that should bring the entire Western world, within of a few decades, to be “moved” and heated only by clean energy of various kinds. It is clear that this would lead Europe (the USA is already one thanks to the fracking revolution) to energy independence from Washington’s geopolitical rivals (Russia first and foremost) and would allow the old continent to be kept in the geopolitical orbit Anglo-Saxon (which is, let’s remember, the priority of US geopolitics at the moment – we recommend, in this regard, the following article: At the same time, the Western world is developing an autarkic economic dynamic, denying the globalization that the USA itself created and favored since the end of the Second World War (and which reached its apogee in the years following the very profound transformations that occurred in the Second World in 90s of the last century). These developments are also determined by specific geopolitical interests. The level of power and wealth achieved by the main beneficiaries of globalization (China and Russia first and foremost) has created a very strong conflict between the economies of the Western world and the emerging ones. The latter now feel so strong that they no longer simply ask for a place in the sun in the global geopolitical and geoeconomic architecture. They want to determine its developments. They want to replace the old hegemons. Which, obviously, have already responded “scantly” to these demands and are preparing to wage economic and military war on the new arrivals. These are the reasons that are leading to the end of globalization and world trade. And which are pushing the West to close in on itself, economically and geopolitically. On the other hand, the economic interdependence of past years now appears completely incompatible with the geopolitical developments that are maturing in the global geopolitical framework. The USA wants to maintain its dominion over the European continent and, to do so, must close it to external influences and dependencies. To do this, the United States of America itself must move Europe towards a conflict against its geopolitical antagonists in order to separate their fate (and their respective economies). This process is already underway and will reach full maturity in the years to come. Barring coups by the European establishment that bring Brussels closer to Moscow and Beijing. Not an impossible scenario (also considering the specific interests of the European economy) but which seems, after the course taken by the events of the war in Ukraine, decidedly unlikely.


In this short article we have tried to clarify the reasons and geopolitical purposes that are moving the Western establishments in the dynamics of international relations today. And which will be a harbinger of great changes in the near future. Both in the raw materials markets (agricultural and mining) and in world trade which should undergo a profound reduction for the reasons clarified above. It is completely clear that what is declared by the official information is purely instrumental. Behind the dynamics in question there are precise geopolitical motivations that have little to do with ecology or climate change. In truth, we are trying in every way to save a system of power that is eroding more and more day after day. And which appears threatened, today more than ever, by the economic (and, consequently, geopolitical) rise of new actors on the international geopolitical stage. When the producers of raw materials (agricultural and mineral) are able to impose their control on prices (freeing them from that of Western finance) on them, it is evident that the inflationary dynamic can escape the control of central banks and of the economic action of governments with the possibility of triggering a devastating dynamic for the economic growth of the countries that import them. Dynamic that can be fueled, for specifically geopolitical purposes, by the producing countries (also in relation to diplomatic frictions that take shape) with the aim of damaging the Western economy and making it in some way dependent on them. This is why today the West is actively promoting the energy transition. This is indispensable especially for Europe which is extremely dependent on hydrocarbons imported from abroad (it is especially essential to free it from its economic dependence on Russia’s mineral resources and keep it under the influence of Washington). To this end, Washington has also decided to “close” the doors to its geopolitical rivals (limiting their economic relations and trade as much as possible) and to start an economic and military confrontation with them. Throwing away that globalization that has brought more pain than joy to the US empire and which has allowed its geopolitical and geostrategic rivals to become powerful to the point of being able to challenge its hegemony. It is very difficult to say what the consequences of this economic and geopolitical direction will be. What is certain is that this geopolitical dynamic will divide the world into blocks and will “deplete” the world economy by several percentage points of GDP.

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